Conceptual illustration of thawing permafrost effects on the remaining carbon budget
Figure 9: Conceptual illustration of thawing permafrost effects on the remaining carbon budget
Left y-axis: global carbon emissions, right y-axis: global temperature change. With increasing temperature in response to fossil-fuel emissions in the climate stabilization scenario (red line), carbon emissions due to thawing permafrost (blue line) lead to an additional increase in temperature reducing the remaining carbon budget for a given temperature target. Permafrost emissions continue on long timescales after fossil-fuel emissions are reduced to zero (on a short timescale), implying either warming exceeding the target temperature or the necessity of negative carbon emissions for climate stabilization.