and Society (CLICCS)
Assessing Climate Protests From a Political Sciences StandpointIs the “Last Generation” harming the climate movement?
11 July 2023, by Christina Krätzig
Photo: CCO
65 percent of Germans consider environmental protection an extremely important topic, as a survey conducted by the German Environment Agency (Umweltbundesamt) last year shows. But the same can’t be said for the actions of the “Last Generation” and similar groups: Roughly 80 percent of the populace are against them. In the following interview, Dr. Jan Wilkens from the Cluster of Excellence CLICCS at Universität Hamburg explains how the scientific community views the effects of their actions.
Mr. Wilkens, as a political scientist, your work concerns social developments against the backdrop of climate change. Do these climate protests worry you?
At the moment, some people like to give the impression that these climate protests actually harm the environmental protection movement. But there’s no direct indication of that in surveys, or currently any empirical evidence to support such a claim. Environmental protection continues to be considered important. The accusation is an example of successful framing: It diverts the public’s attention from the fact that national and international climate policies alike are still insufficient. Corporate strategies and consumer behavior that are still rooted in the consumption of fossil fuels are holding back environmental protection – not the protests organized by the “Last Generation.”
Moreover, their demands can hardly be called radical: A speed limit and a nine-euro train ticket aren’t far removed from mainstream social debates. I consider their demands perfectly understandable, even if some of their strategic choices and arguments are controversial. But testing boundaries lies in the nature of protests. From an academic standpoint, it’s only normal that new forms of protest, often including ones considered radical, emerge in the process.
How likely are the protests to succeed? Will they accelerate environmental protection?
In the latest Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, we at the Cluster of Excellence “Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICSS)” identified social movements and climate protests as a key social driver with regard to successful decarbonization. Their effects are of tremendous importance in the long term. They don’t always have a direct influence in the sense of causing environmental protection measures to immediately be implemented. Their success consists in constantly reminding decision-makers of environmental protection’s importance. They maintain the pressure to act.
A few years ago, the Fridays for Future movement greatly contributed to environmental protection suddenly once again becoming an important topic for all of society in many Western countries. What’s different about today’s protests?
The large-scale demonstrations organized by Fridays for Future in 2019 sent an important message to many actors. They were an essential contribution to raising awareness of the[MOU1] ongoing climate change in society and politics. Now the focus is on implementing environmental protection, on achieving a societal transformation toward decarbonization. Yet we still have no policy to spur on the required changes. That’s had a sobering effect. Many people feel that new forms of protest are called for, and that specific demands have to be made more clearly.
Needless to say, if the protests expanded it would send a message. But politicians can ignore large protests, too. If we consider success to mean gaining attention, then smaller groups can also be successful. It also has a lot to do with the narrative that a given protest is embedded in, and which is used to justify it. The currently declared goal of using upcoming protests to reach out to the rich marks a change in course and points to a new, important aspect: the connection between social inequality and climate change.