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Cluster of ExcellenceClimate, Climatic Change,
and Society (CLICCS)

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Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook '21

Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2021

In the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, CLICCS researchers make the first systematic attempt to assess which climate futures are plausible, by synthesizing research from disciplines as varied as sociology, macroeconomics and earth system science. In this way, CLICCS helps to narrow down the multitude of future scenarios to inform policy and individual decisions.

goals.

Download the study as accessible PDF and as ePub
Fact sheets: key information at a glance
Key Findings: the most important findings at a glance
Figures: key graphics at a glance and for download (as jpeg files)
Authors and reviewers of the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2021
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Photo: CLICCS/Universität Hamburg

Climate Protection: Deep Decarbonization by 2050 Currently not Plausible

CLICSS publishes a new, essential study on climate futures. The study represents the first systematic attempt to investigate whether a climate future with net-zero carbon emissions is not only possible but also plausible. The authors examine plausibility from a technical-economic perspective, but also with regard to the societal changes necessary for such a future. They conclude that deep decarbonization by 2050 is currently not plausible – the current efforts to bring about societal transformation need to be far more ambitious.

Read full press release about the Outlook

Portrait Prof. Anita Engels, Prof. Jochem Marotzke

Photo: CEN/UHH/C. Hoehne

What Do We Mean by “Plausible”?

Which climate futures are possible and which are plausible? The Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook addresses this question for the first time.

Interview with Anita Engels and Jochem Marotzke
Portrait Prof. Detlef Stammer

Photo: CEN/UHH/D. Ausserhofer

What Matters Most Is Which Path We’re On

Strict climate protection measures, net zero emissions, or simply business as usual? When it comes to the future climate, there are a number of possibilities.

Detlef Stammer on the plausibility of climate scenarios
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Possible and Plausible Climate Futures

The Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook presents a novel attempt to distinguish between possible and plausible climate futures. Possible future scenarios are those that are consistent with the scientific understanding of the climate system and social dynamics. Plausible climate futures denote the subset of those possible future states that we expect to unfold with appreciable probability, given the existing evidence from the physical and social worlds (see Figure 1).