Future scenarios, climate change and security

13 November 2019, by Ute Kreis

Photo: pixabay - Free Photos

Researchers from Europe, India, Israel and the USA will meet today and tomorrow at the Universität to discuss on future scenarios in connection with climate change and security. Here the focus will be less on physical factors, and more on views of the future, such as those currently being discussed in sociology, anthropology, political science, geography, and in the environmental sciences.

“In politics, at firms, in civil society – when it comes to climate change and uncertainty, nearly all of the participants work with scenarios in which various future possibilities are displayed and tested,” reports Christine Hentschel, a Professor of Criminology, Security and Resilience at Universität Hamburg. It’s important to address these ideas and images, and to do so across the borders between academic disciplines. After all: “Scenarios aren’t just abstract exercises. They give us a concrete idea of how the future can be shaped – and often have an influence on which opportunities and solutions we choose to invest in.”

Whether for planning our cities or a CO₂-free economy, scenarios are highly controversial, both in the political community and society as a whole. This is the focus of the working group “Conflict and Cooperation at the Climate-Security Nexus,” part of the Cluster of Excellence CLICCS, which organized the event. In this regard, uncertainties play an integral role. According to Hentschel: “We don’t know what the future will bring. Nevertheless we have to make certain choices. Being able to ‘look inside’ scenarios can help us contemplate what we as a society stand for in terms of responding to the climate crisis.”